How sharp bettors play Cowboys-Rams Michigan-Indiana nuggets gambling

Pa Patrick Everson
FOX sports gambling writer

There are some intriguing matches on NFL Week 5 Odds Scoreboard Primetime Fights Between Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravensand Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs maybe lead the way.

But on both sides of the NFL betting counter, these FOX games stand out: Dallas Cowboys on Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears on Minnesota Vikings.

Here are the details on those two matchups and some more odds for NFL Week 5 and College Football Week 6.

no Docno problem

Believe it or not, the Cowboys are 3-0 without starting quarterback Dak Prescott. Even better for bettors, Dallas covered the spread in all three games with a backup Cooper Rush under the center. The Cowboys are now 3-1 (SU) against the spread (ATS) this season.

Jerryville had hoped Prescott could return for Sunday’s 4:25 PM ET game against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS). But that hope was dashed on Tuesday with this news Prescott will sit out at least another week.

But that’s not deterring Cowboys fans at WynnBet, where Dallas is a 5-point underdog heading into midweek. And this is sharp money on Dallas, no less.

“Dak being officially ruled out again this week isn’t a surprise. However, some would say the 3-1 Cowboys are a surprise,” WynnBet trader John Manica said. “Relying on a strong defense and an adequate offense, the Cowboys have won three in a row. Early action is tough for the Cowboys as we have taken two bets from respected parties, one at +6 very early and the other at +5.5.”

Monica noted that Los Angeles played a physical game Monday night in the San Francisco, a 24-9 loss to the Rams that also weighs in on opinions. The matchup also turns into a Pro vs. Joe game at WynnBet, where the pros bet on the underdog and the public on the favorite.

“The Rams on short rest and the style of Dallas is definitely comforting for the bettors,” Manika said. The Rams will come with an A’s effort at home to avoid back-to-back losses and further slide in the NFC West standings. The number of tickets favors the Rams. We may see a pro stance again against the Cowboys, but the crowd will be on the Rams.”

Money on Mini

The Bears and Vikings resume NFC North hostilities at 1:00 PM ET on FOX. Chicago is 2-2 SU and 1-2-1 ATS; Minnesota is 3-1 SU, but just 1-3 ATS, failing to get a shutout in its last three games.

That doesn’t stop one professional bookie from making a touchdown with the Vikings.

“Minnesota -7. I like where this team is going,” he said. “Chicago is one of the three worst teams in the NFL and I expect Minnesota to win this game. Coach [Kevin O’Connell] and the team are happy together. And the fast track guarantees this play.”

It will be the indoor turf of US Bank Stadium.

Fastening bolts

That same edgy contestant has settled on a short favorite making the long journey this week: the Los Angeles Chargers (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) travel to Cleveland to face the Brown (2-2 SU and PBX).

“I’m on the Chargers -2.5.” This team is getting healthier offensively and I expect them to play well on both sides of the ball in this matchup,” he said, noting that he also expects the Browns to play from behind, which doesn’t suit them.

Also, he’s not concerned about the QB Justin Herbert & Co. on this long trip.

“For the Chargers to go on the road is a blessing. The tenth number will try to prove that he is an elite,” he said.

College Football on FOX

Fast forward to Saturday, FOX has a triple-header that starts with the Big Ten, then moves to the Pac-12 for a pair of games.

The day begins with the Big Noon Kickoff and the incomparable Gus Johnson on the #4 bell Michigan in Indiana. The Wolverines (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) were 10.5-point favorites last week Iowawinning 27-14 but haven’t played in back-to-back games this season.

And in this contest, Michigan is a heavy favorite against Indiana at 22.5 points (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS).

Still, punters aren’t really giving up on Wolverine. As of late Wednesday night on DraftKings, Michigan was accepting 74% of point spread bets and 79% of point spread money.

Saturday at 3:30pm ET on FOX, #11 Utah (4-1 SU and ATS) meets undefeated and 18th ranked UCLA (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS). The Utahns are a 4-point road favorite on DraftKings after opening at -3.5, sinking to -3 and spending time at -4.5 this week. Utah gets 56% of the early tickets on the spread and 71% of the early money on the spread.

Finally, Saturday at 7:30pm ET on FOX, Washington State (4-1 SU and ATS) visit No. 6 USC (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS). The Trojans opened as 13.5-point favorites on Sunday afternoon, but dropped to -11 a couple of hours later. The southern California low jumped to -13 on Monday afternoon and stayed there until Wednesday evening.

USC counts 60% of the point spread early tickets, but the point spread money is even close to dead at 52% on the Trojans.

A rare large dog

Back to the NFL. There are many positive things you can say about Pittsburgh Steelers based on their work over the past 50 years or so. How consistently good are the Steelers? Well, according to ESPN Stats and Information Researcher Mackenzie Kramer, Pittsburgh is the only team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 that has never been an underdog by 14 or more points.

Until now.

In Sunday’s game at Buffalo (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS). Steelers will send rookie QB Kenny Pickettwhich certainly factors into the big spread, as well as the fact that the Bills are the consensus Super Bowl favorite.

Still, Pittsburgh’s run has been nothing short of impressive. Every other team in the league has been a 14-point underdog at least once since 1970, and many teams have been underdogs multiple times.

“It shows how consistent the organization is,” said John Murray, chief executive of The SuperBook. “They’re not a franchise that fires a coach and rebuilds a front office every few years. They have a plan and they stick to it. They don’t get a bunch of bad contracts and they don’t trade away their draft picks.

“They never have to start a complete rebuild. They’re always at least competitive. They’re a smart organization. That’s pretty rare in sports.”

And in sports betting. We’ll see on Sunday if the Steelers can prove the odds wrong with a 14-point margin.

The main concern

In the 4th week Kansas City scored 28 points in the first half on a Tampa Bay a defense that was previously impenetrable. The Chiefs won 41-31, scoring 2 points on the road under the Sunday Night Lights.

This week, KC (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) is back in prime time Monday night vs. Raiders (1-3 SU and PBX). Bookmakers are bracing for a big decision as public bets fall behind in the queue Patrick Mahomes & Co.

“The Chiefs had a very impressive prime-time win over the Bucs and Raiders [are coming] from the mandatory game against Denver” said WynnBet’s Manika. “The number opened Chiefs -6.5 and didn’t last long as -7 followed soon after. I expect it to be a one-sided decision for most books, as several operators will be Raiders fans at kickoff on Monday Night Football.

“KC seems to play offense and the Raiders usually struggle in this matchup, especially on the road, with their only road win in the last decade coming in 2020. Last year, the Raiders lost twice by a combined score of 90-23. We’ve already built up a decent liability on KC, mostly from smaller actions, because the sharp ones didn’t speak up.”

I like big bets and I can’t lie

With the NFL season about a month away, Caesars Sports sent out some interesting notes on Super Bowl odds and action. According to Max Mayer of Caesars Sports, there have been 36 Super Bowl bets of at least $10,000.

Fourteen of these bets are made on favorite bills. Tom Brady and the Bucs have six such bets, and a group of teams have two each: Orlov, Packers, Colts, Broncos, Rams, Ravens and Chiefs. The Saints and Patriots have one each.

Biggest Bets at Caesars:

• $50,000 in +450 accounts for a potential win of $225,000
• $30,000 on Bills +600 to win $180,000
• $30,000 on Eagles +850 to win $255,000

There were also some flyer bets, including a couple with perhaps a tinge of regional bias and little chance of paying out:

• $5,000 per Jet planes at 200/1, for a potential $1 million win from a client from New York
• $5,000 per Lviv at 150/1 to win $750,000 from a Michigan customer

May your weekend bets have a better chance of winning money than these two tickets.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He previously worked at Covers and is a prominent journalist in the national sports betting space. He lives in Las Vegas, where he enjoys playing golf in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.