Pa Patrick Everson
FOX sports gambling writer
Every Sunday night, I chat with John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook, about the opening lines and first action of the next week’s more important NFL games. My first thought when looking at the NFL Week 7 odds last Sunday was, What a disappointing Week 6.
Murray agreed, sending a text message: “Yikes. These are terrible games next week.”
But at least we have Chiefs–49erswhich is actually a big national game on FOX.
Below are the details on this Super Bowl LIV rematch, along with a few more betting nuggets for NFL Week 7 and College Football Week 8 odds.
Pro vs. Joss
In Week 6, Kansas City got a cold sandwich as revenge, losing to the team at home Buffalo 24-20. And rare that the Chiefs were underdogs in that game by 2.5 points.
It’s back to normal this week, with KC a 2.5 favorite on WynnBet to kick off in San Francisco on Sunday at 4:25pm ET. But that’s half a point below the starting line of -3.
“Kansas City went all out last week as we saw the Buffalo Bills circle the wagons for a win and avenge last year’s playoff loss. The Chiefs are starting to feel the effects of a quarterback-less lineup. on a rookie deal,” WynnBet trader John Manica said, noting the big bucks on Patrick Mahomes – that’s right – affect the money available elsewhere.
But that won’t keep public/recreational bettors away from the Chiefs. Or even some professional bookies for that matter.
“We’ve seen some sharp action on both sides of this game,” Manika said of the midweek stakes. “It’s a good setup after a bad loss for the 49ers because they went down a lot Falcons. The Chiefs still passed the eye test, losing to Buffalo in a close game. Although the 49ers will likely be needed in this one, with plenty of Chiefs fans in any number below 3 and [the public] sending it to [Kansas City] cash line. He looks like a classic professional bookie against the public game.”
One of these professional bookies is already in the underdog.
“”I’m on San Francisco +3. “The 49ers are getting healthier for this matchup,” he said.
The Chiefs enter this contest, the first time these two teams have met since KC’s 31-20 Super Bowl victory to end the 2019-20 season, going 4-2 (SU) but just 2-4 against the spread ( ATS). KC is 1-4 ATS in their last five games while San Fran is 3-3 SU and ATS.
Sharp side
Speaking of big quarterback contracts: it sure looks like it Denver Broncos they were also traded to a subsequent five-year, $245 million deal Russell Wilson.
Wilson and the Broncos’ struggling offense have been held to 17 points or fewer in five of six games. Denver was terrible again in Week 6 on Monday night, allowing just one TD and three field goals in a 19-16 overtime loss. Chargers.
Now news is coming out of the Broncos camp that Wilson has a hamstring problem, with a hamstring injury New York Jets comes to town on Sunday. The aforementioned sharp betting man, who I speak to every week, got the best of the number on the underdog road.
“I’m on the Jets +3,” he said, noting that New York is now a +1. “After confirming Hammy with Russ, it’s a game of numbers and support teams that can score.”
Indeed. The Jets (4-2 SU and ATS) just won the Green bay 27-10 and scored 24 points or more in four of six games. Denver (2-4 SU and ATS) has not scored 24 points in any of its six games.
“The Jets are playing well. Great energy,” said the professional bookie.
More jet fuel
WynnBet opened the Jets-Broncos vs. Denver game at -3 (-120) and by late Wednesday morning the line had stopped to pick them. The Broncos were back to -1 late Wednesday night.
Monica confirmed that sharpshooters fired on New York when the news broke about Wilson’s hamstring.
“The biggest move of the week came with the news that Russell Wilson’s health could be in question on Sunday,” Manika said Wednesday night. “Several sharp bids have been received [Tuesday] starting at +3 on the Jets. I was behind the wheel during the move. After taking the first bet at +3, we quickly moved to 2.5. The market continued to drift, taking us down to +1.5 where we made a sharp bid again.
“The Jets took another step today by picking up a pick in the market where we found our first resistance, a bet on the Broncos from a respected source.”
But it’s an evolving situation, and that line will likely move more once Wilson’s status becomes clear.
“If Wilson goes, I expect the score to immediately go back to where it started, around Broncos -3,” Manika said. “However, if the reserve Brett Rypien As it stands, the Jets are likely to be the favorites, and the home needs the Broncos in what is sure to be a road team that the public supports. The Broncos are on a short week and suffered an ugly loss to the Chargers, and [starting] backup quarterback against the Jets after their strong win over the Packers.
It’s definitely not the kind of combination that makes you want to take Denver. Stay tuned for this injury report.
College Football on FOX
Let’s go back to school for a few minutes. In Saturday’s Big South on FOX tilt, we see a true dichotomy. No. 2 Ohio State (6-0 SU, 3-2-1 ATS), which has scored 45 or more points in five of six games, takes over Iowa, which is college football’s version of the Denver Broncos. Maybe even worse.
The Hawkeyes (3-3 SU and ATS) have scored 14 points or fewer in four of their six games, including three games in which they have scored a paltry 7 points or fewer. Last week in IllinoisIowa lost 9-6.
So will Ohio State be dragged kicking and screaming into a low-scoring rock fight? Or will the Buckeyes put up a ton of points again and beat Iowa by 50?
Midweek DraftKings has CJ Stroud & Co. as home favorites with 30.5 points. That streak is up 2.5 points from the Buckeyes’ -28 Sunday opener. But the spread bets barely work, with Ohio State winning 52% of the spread and 51% of the spread.
Moving on to Saturday’s 3:30 ET on FOX: A much better matchup if No. 9 UCLA (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) goes to #10 Oregon (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS).
Oregon has been a 6-point home favorite all week on DraftKings, and UCLA is getting 71% early spread tickets/76% early spread money.
A giant regression?
Going back to the NFL. The New York Giants has exceeded all expectations this season both on the field with a 5-1 SU mark and on the betting rack with a corresponding 5-1 ATS mark. Coach Brian Daboll is now taking his team to Jacksonville, where Jaguars (2-4 SU and ATS) – who started strong and are now on the tear – are 3-point favorites in The SuperBook.
Neil Fitzroy, risk manager and oddsmaker at The SuperBook, said Giants-Jags is one of the most interesting matchups. Starts at 1pm ET on FOX.
“The Giants are a popular choice this week. Their new coach has done everything,” Fitzroy said. “But the records of both the Jags and the Giants can be misleading once you get into the analytics. You’d think the Giants are regressing, and the Jags are a competent team that needs to get their act together.
“We see some sharp action on the Jags among the straight bets.”
That’s why the Jags are -3 (-120) midweek after opening at -2.5.
Unwatchable TV
Back to the NFL, WynnBet’s Manika decided to analyze the Thursday night game between New Orleans Saints (2-4 SU and PBX) and the owner Arizona Cardinals (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS).
“The secret is in these, let’s face it, pretty awful Thursday night football games,” Manika stated flatly. “The last two were real trunkers, with violations stuck mostly in neutral. which is not surprising [Wednesday] we saw the total drop from 46 to 44. The move was injury-related as both teams have a ton of moving parts, which is usually bad for scoring with little time to prepare.”
Manika noted an extensive list of moves and injury issues. Perhaps worth noting is that the Cardinals star widely DeAndre Hopkins returns from six-game suspension.
“At Camp Arizona, [wideout] Robbie Anderson was traded for, [wideout] Marquise Brown on IR, Hopkins returns, and [running back] James Conner is questionable,” Manika said. “They will definitely be without two wide receivers in Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas in Saints camp. The Saints have not named a quarterback in the starting lineup, and Jameis Winston (back/ankle) is still a health condition.”
With all these players out/potentially out, it could be another eyesore on Thursday night.
“All roads lead to another TNF knockdown,” Manika said.
Jalen Hurts, Eagles push to go undefeated on season
The 1972 Miami Dolphins saw the Eagles go undefeated early in the season. The team admitted that they are keeping an eye on Philly’s season as they celebrate the 50th anniversary of their perfect season. According to Fox Bet Sportsbook, the Eagles are currently favored in all games the rest of the year and are 20-1 undefeated this regular season. Skip Bayless and Shannon Sharp predict the future of the Eagles.
Flying eagles fly
With Philadelphia off to a 6-0 start at SU, some of the bookies The Eagles can go 17-0 in the regular season. To that I would say, if you want to, go for it, but as decades have shown, this bet is unlikely to succeed. So keep your expectations and bet size reasonable if you’re inclined to jump on Philly being perfect.
Just as importantly, search various sportsbooks for the best odds on the Eagles going 17-0. For example, the Eagles odds for a 17-0 regular season are currently +1400 (14-1) at several sportsbooks. This means that a $100 bet will win $1,400. But in The SuperBook, Fitzroy pointed out that you can get odds of +2500 (25-1) on the same option. So your $100 bet can turn into $2,500.
Given that in most states where sports betting is legal, you can check odds in the palm of your hand or on a computer, there’s no reason not to take a few minutes to shop around and compare them.
I like big bets and I can’t lie
I’d be lying if I said I enjoyed the next series of bets. Because anyone who puts top dollar on my Denver Broncos offensive calls must have a ton of spare cash.
During Denver’s Week 6 Monday night road game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Caesars Sports reported three: three!!!! – $55,000 betting on the Broncos. Two of those bets were on Denver +5 and the third was on Denver +4.5.
Those bets actually got the best score, as the Broncos were +3.5 early. And so, these bets received money! Denver trailed 19-16 in overtime but covered the spread.
I guess you can’t argue with the results. Let’s hope you’ll all be just as casual – though admittedly on a smaller scale – over the course of the football weekend.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a well-known journalist in the national sports betting space. He lives in Las Vegas, where he enjoys playing golf in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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