Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB betting analyst

What could be a better way to start your week than to bet on MLB futures markets? We discussed World Series Champions, MVP capabilities and Cy Young candidates. Now let’s analyze the newcomer of the year.

As we discussed, FanGraphs WAR was a pretty good indicator of awards at the end of the season. Newbie of the Year is no exception.

Here’s a look at some past winners:

Even if the first place did not have the highest fWAR, each situation can be explained (e.g. Shohei Ahtani feeds and strokes). Now the question arises as to how best to predict who will have the highest fWAR.

Obviously, beginners have fewer data scores available compared to their fellow veterans. The good news is that Statcast data (which I explained how to use to find the cost of betting) now includes the Minor Leagues. Bands like Baseball America and Sports Info Solutions are accepting average and maximum output speed to get power classthen also take sprint speed to get a mark on the run. These scores are broken down into groups on a scale of 20 to 80. The lower end of the scale 20 indicates skills that are nearly a major league; 80 is absolutely elite.

It should be noted that, unlike other sports, the Major League Baseball does not classify a newcomer as a player who simply competes in the first year. Instead, anyone with less than 130 bits, 50 innings or 45 days of non-September service life is considered a beginner.

For example, Tampa Bay Race‘outfielder Randy Arazaren made his MLB debut in the 2019 season and became famous in the 2020 post-season. But, starting in 2021, he still had less than 130 battles in the regular season, making him a newcomer. Last season, he won the Newcomer of the Year award in the American League.

It’s important to remember that some players may gain extra fame from the previous season or postseason. Although it is not as spectacular as the edge of Arazarena, Brave pitcher Spencer Strider had one good output in 2021 against Metz.

Combining this analytical analysis with this season’s Statcast data and any potential major league data up to this season, here are four newbies with the value of New Year’s betting bets, all odds provided by FOX Bet.

American League

Spencer Torkelson: +1200 on FOX Bet (bet $ 10 to win $ 130 in total)

When it comes to beginners, there may be less patience during a slow start, so there is a risk. Among beginners with enough bats to qualify, the Tigers from the first base are dangerously close to the top ten with a strikeout rate of 29.8% and an average of 0.179. But few beginners have such strength, emphasized by the raw power class of 70.

Also, as we’ve discussed, it’s a good idea to look for strikers with a big difference between the expected average batting and the actual average batting, as this often indicates growth. Torkelson’s difference ranks 10th (0.053). Especially at high walking speeds its improvement could grow like gangbusters.

Adly Rutschman: +2000 on FOX Bet (bet $ 10 to win $ 210 in total)

Although OriolesThe catcher made his major league debut in mid-May, his raw strength gaining an impressive 65 points out of 80.

З The 100 best prospects on the FanGraphs list for 2022, he is the only one whose future value – partly derived from his power and speed figures – gets 70 points. No one has finished better than 65. However, lagging behind by about a quarter of the season, does Rutschman have enough time to catch up with the other newcomers?

Although it lacks a bit to calculate the Statcast sprint speed, it already has 0.1 fWAR. Growth will not be linear, but charge forecasting can be reasonable with its potential. With such odds the bets on Rutschman have some value.

National League

Alec Thomas: +1000 on FOX Bet (bet $ 10 to win $ 110 in total)

Interestingly, the current favorite – Cubs‘outfielder Seiya Suzuki – does not currently lead NL in fWAR. While Suzuki’s impressive figures in Japan suggest it has the highest ceiling in the beginner class, Alec Thomas has started a hotter start.

The Diamond backsThe outfielder has a power rating of 55 and a speed rating of 60. These are solid numbers. It already has a percentage based on 0.354 with a decent strikeout rate of 18.8%. Perhaps most striking is the fact that Thomas ’expected average is in the top 70 among all the major leagues.

Although he was called only on May 8, which means his sample is smaller than many other newcomers, voters will notice if Thomas can continue to lead the ball and use his speed to defeat his countrymen and turn singles into extras. base.

Joey Bart: +4000 on FOX Bet (bet $ 10 to win $ 410 in total)

More love for catchers! Remember the criteria a player must meet to be considered a beginner? The GiantsThe catcher has crossed the line with more than 100 bats during the 2020 campaign, but with Buster Posey, who still played last season, Bart has mostly remained a minor until this season.

Its strikeout speed could be an alarming 45.3% and its speed rating a paltry 30, but its power rating is a stellar 60, and the xBA-BA difference ranks 17th (0.025) among the top 50 beginners in bats.

He may have a tough start, but Bart must get better and he is in the right situation.

Like any futures market, bets on a newcomer of the year depend on health decisions and organizational decisions on how long that player will receive opportunities. But adding volatility only makes the market less efficient, so finding the right prodigy and supporting it is now worth it.

Happy betting!

Edward Egros is a TV presenter / writer of sports analytics, sports betting analyst, data scientist and adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions led him to become a lumpis a lover of cold beer. Edward previously worked on local television, particularly at the Fox branch in Dallas, covering rangers, cowboys and football in high school. Follow him Twitter @EdWithSports.

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