Pa Jeff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL analyst

You guys know the saying, never judge the size of a dog in a fight. Well, this week we’re remixing it to make the underdog get paid because it’s all about being a dog in these NFL Rates of the 6th week.

So, with that in mind, here are my best bets for Week 6 (odds via Bet FOX).

Tom Brady prepares Falcons defense in Buccaneers win.

Tom Brady threw for 351 yards and a touchdown during the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ win against the Atlanta Falcons.

Buccaneers in Steelers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers


Pittsburgh Steelers


Pittsburgh stinks. The Steelers might be the worst team in football, but I’ll back them here.

First, Tomlin’s teams are fantastic against the spread at home. Second, this Kenny Pickett first home opener and I would expect the offense to improve after only scoring three points against Buffalo. Pickett only turned the ball over once and played better than the evaluation suggested. The biggest problem for the Steelers offense on Sunday was their 0-for-4 performance in the red zone. They can’t be any worse on Sunday against the Bucs.

I am always optimistic Tom Brady team. He’s the best ever, and no matter how shaky his team may look, he’s shown time and time again that it doesn’t matter. However, I’m losing my optimism as the Bucs seem to be stuck in the mud. They lost in Packersexploded Chiefsand without terrible rudeness a passer-by calls out against Grady Jarretton Sunday, the Falcons will drive the ball to win.

I’m just not sure the Bucs are that good right now and this is the perfect place to buy against them. It’s a lowly Steelers team that no one believes in against a Tampa Bay team that is better on paper than they’ve been playing.

CHOICE: Steelers (+8 at FOX Bet) to lose by less than 8 points (or outright win)

49ers in Falcons (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

San Francisco 49ers


Atlanta Falcons


The Atlanta Falcons are 2-3 on the season, but have won all five football games they have played. They are diehards and seem to pick up steam as the game gets longer. They were able to get themselves back into football games thanks to their diverse rushing attack that ranked second before last weekend.

Like most teams whose main method of attack is dribbling, it takes a few game minutes to get into a comfortable rhythm of attack from the ground. The Falcons have another opportunity to keep the game tied with a bigger point spread this weekend.

The 49ers easily defeated the Panthers on Sunday, but the win came at a high price. Their best cornerback Jimmy Wardwill miss time with a wrist injury and their better passing Nick Bosso, left the game with a groin injury. The 49th were already without Eric Armstead and Kinlaw in Carolina. Without three starting defensive linemen, the Falcons offense will control the line of scrimmage.

The 49ers offense should move the ball reasonably well against this Falcons defense. Still, I like the matchup of the Falcons defense Grady Jarrett against any of the Niners interior linemen. He is good enough to make things very difficult Jimmy G.

I don’t think the Falcons will win the game, but I’ll take them to score 5.5 points

CHOICE: Falcons (+5.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by less than 5.5 points (or win outright)

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Colin Cowherd reacts to OBJ’s latest update.

Cardinals in Sea hawks (4:05 p.m. ET, Sunday, FOX)

Arizona Cardinals


Seattle Seahawks


The wrong team is the favorite in this mascot bird match. Seattle is the better team right now, and it’s not even close. Seattle ranks 10th in total DVOA and leads the offense, averaging 6.6 yards per game. I did not predict Gena Smith leading the most efficient offense in the NFL!

The Cardinals defense is 26th and not doing much good. They are ranked 32nd Professional football focus in coverage, which isn’t ideal against this high-powered offense in Seattle.

The Seahawks can be had on defense where they are not very good. Still, can the Cardinals take advantage of the offense? I see no evidence of this. Arizona ranks 27th in rushing yards per game. They rank 21st in run blocking and 14th in pass defense. Their offense always looks disjointed and the Seattle game won’t help their cause.

Also, it’s worth noting that Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury is horribly against the schedule as a favorite, covering just eight of 22 games. Meanwhile, Pete Carroll is more than a 60% underdog after the loss. I’ll take the Seahawks here.

CHOICE: Seahawks (+2.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by less than 2.5 points (or outright win)

Broncos in Chargers (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Broncos Country, Let’s Ride! I will keep disappearing Russell Wilsonquarterback pass number yards. The Fox Bet gives me 241.5 yards and I’ll happily take the Under.

Wilson was well short of that number before overtime last weekend, putting him under 241 yards in the Broncos’ four games. He’s completing just 59.4% of his passes, and he ranks 25th in expected points by a quarterback. Now, Wilson is on the road and facing a Chargers defense that is much better at stopping the pass than the run. The Chargers are 12th in passing defense DVOA, and they are allowing 237.6 passing yards per game.

The Broncos will use their rushing attack for yards and to avoid Wilson’s mistakes. Also, Ross’ injured muscle or whatever excuse they use for his poor play could slow him down even more.

CHOICE: Russell Wilson Less than 241.5 yards passing on FOX Bet

Jeff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL with five different teams. He started at right tackle at Oregon State University for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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