By Warren Sharp
FOX Sports NFL Writer
The Week 6 slate features some great matchups, including the Buccaneers–Steelers and 49ers–Falcons games on FOX.
I ran my models to give you my favorite betting edges and predictions for Week 6 of the season. My goal for this weekly column is always to provide tidbits you didn’t know before reading.
So, let’s leap into my favorite edges of the week, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.
Buccaneers at Steelers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
After a three-game home stand, the Bucs head out on the road to take on the hapless and injured Steelers.
Although this Steelers passing offense did not put up points last week, it showed a massive improvement.
Look at these passing splits:
- Weeks 1-4: -0.21 EPA/dropback (No. 31)
- Week 5: +0.05 EPA/dropback (No. 16)
In the last three weeks, the Bucs defense has been shredded with underneath passing. Yes, this came against the Packers and Chiefs, but they were also exploited by the Atlanta Falcons last week.
They allowed +0.34 EPA/att on passes from Mariota, which were thrown less than 15 yards.
Over the last three games, they are allowing +0.31 EPA/att on passes thrown less than 15 yards.
That’s the worst pass defense in the NFL.
Kenny Pickett should be able to have some success in this area.
Last week’s start for Pickett, facing a great pass defense in the wind on the road, was far less than ideal.
Playing in the friendly confines of his college stadium this week in his first start should make things substantially better for him.
One thing we know about the Bucs is that they will bring pressure. On the season, they’re blitzing at the fifth-highest rate on early downs, at 35%.
Last week against Marcus Mariota, they blitzed at an insane 68% rate.
The Bucs may try to do similar this week with the inexperienced Pickett.
But the wild thing about the Steelers passing offense on the season is they’ve been shockingly great facing the blitz.
This season, the top-ranked offense vs early down blitzes in EPA/att is the Steelers offense.
They are averaging +0.37 EPA/att on 35 dropbacks vs the blitz this year.
In addition to ranking first in EPA/att, they are second in completion rate, fourth in YPA and fifth in success rate.
While most of those attempts were from Mitchell Trubisky, Kenny Pickett posted a stat line of 7-of-9, 7.1 YPA and 55% success rate against the biltz.
The point is, the Steelers may have more answers vs the blitz than we otherwise would suspect. And often, big plays can occur when defenses sell out to get after the quarterback.
The Bucs enter this game getting healthier offensively.
Look at Tom Brady’s splits the last two weeks, with the return of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, vs the first three weeks of the season:
- Weeks 1-3: No. 19 in EPA/att, No. 21 in success rate, No. 12 in completion rate, No. 11 in TD/INT ratio, No. 28 in third down conversion rate
- Weeks 4-5: No. 7 in EPA/att, No. 1 in success rate, No. 5 in completion rate, No. 1 in TD/INT ratio, No. 2 in third down conversion rate
Both of these defensive secondaries are dealing with massive cluster injuries, and studying the injury report closer to kickoff will be very telling as to how many of these players can return for this game.
I expect a very focused effort from the Steelers after their terrible performance last week.
And I would lean towards the Steelers and the Over.
Cardinals at Seahawks (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
We must continue to discuss the Cardinals’ inability to start games quickly until they rectify it. They have been outscored 38-0 in the first quarter of games and are the only team not to score a single point in the first quarter this season.
This has forced the Cardinals to play from behind and put undue stress on this team to be perfect in the second half of games just to have a shot at winning.
In a small sample, a team could pull that off. The Cardinals obviously haven’t, given their 2-3 record.
But the tax and the toll it puts on your body to never play with a lead and to always try to be perfect late in order to perform extraordinary comebacks will eventually cause either Kyler Murray to get injured or will cause problems for this team down the stretch of the season.
But here and now, the question is, can they score earlier than usual and jump out to a lead?
Fortunately for the Cardinals, after playing the third-toughest schedule of defenses, including two top-15 defenses the last two weeks, they get to face the 31st-ranked defense of the Seattle Seahawks.
Seattle’s defense has earned this ranking despite playing the 15th toughest schedule of offenses.
The two toughest offenses the Seahawks defense has gone up against were Jared Goff’s Lions and Marcus Mariota’s Falcons.
The Cardinals should feel much more confident about performing in this spot offensively to avoid falling behind.
But they’ll still need their defense to step up, as Seattle has scored on 63% of their first-half possessions, best in the NFL.
And the problem for the defense is that it’s plain bad. And predictable.
They blitz at a 40% rate, which is the third-highest in the NFL. And when they blitz, they play zone behind it at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL.
Unfortunately for them, Geno Smith is tremendous vs zone no-blitz, completing 20-of-23 passes while averaging +0.34 EPA/att (#5), 52% success and 9.0 YPA on the season.
Additionally, you have a Seahawks team that is scoring on 63% of their first-half possessions, first in the league.
Geno Smith has been one of the best stories of the season, and now he gets to play at home (after two straight road games) against the fifth-worst pass defense in the NFL and the easiest pass defense he’s faced this season.
On the season, Smith is putting up these incredible numbers despite playing the fourth-toughest schedule of pass defenses.
He’s played just one pass defense which ranks worse than average, and that was the Lions.
Geno recorded a season-high +0.61 EPA/att, 68% success, 10.7 YPA while completing 77% of his passes.
That’s an insane game. It was the third-highest EPA/att for any QB on the season.
It’s hard to envision the Cardinals defense stepping up enough to put the clamps on the Seahawks. Still, I could envision the Cardinals jumping out earlier than usual against this bad Seahawks defense.
But given that I haven’t seen them do it once this year, I’m not willing to back that speculation with money, and I’d grab Seattle +3 on the cheap buy.
PICK: Seahawks (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)
Dak Prescott ‘got his power back’ according to Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb | UNDISPUTED
Skip Bayless and Shannon Sharpe talk Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles and Dak Prescott.
Cowboys at Eagles (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)
Last week the Cowboys averaged -0.21 EPA/dropback, which ranked #25 in the NFL.
Aside from catching the Cincinnati Bengals eighth-ranked pass defense by surprise in his first start and scoring 14 early points, Cooper Rush has had the good fortune of playing:
No. 23 pass defense of the Giants
No. 30 pass defense of the Commanders
No. 25 pass defense of the Rams
That’s three bottom-10 pass defenses.
Now, he goes up against the Eagles second-ranked pass defense, which has faced an average schedule of pass offenses to date.
The schedule discussion is also important to stick with on the other side of the ball.
The defense, not the offense, has helped the Cowboys win their games this year.
And on the season, look at these offensive lines they’ve gone up against:
- Rams
- Commanders
- Giants
- Bengals
In terms of pressure rate allowed by those lines in the first three quarters of games, they rank:
Sure, you might argue, but that’s because they played the Cowboys. Fine. Remove the Cowboys games. Those teams still rank:
In pressure rate allowed. They do not have good offensive lines.
That’s something you cannot say about the Eagles, whose offensive line ranks seventh in pressure rate allowed.
So clearly, the Eagles offensive line is in a different universe than the teams Dallas has defeated.
But there is still a problem for Philadelphia.
They haven’t faced a pass rush anywhere close to what the Cowboys bring.
On the season, the Eagles have gone up against:
These teams rank:
- No. 25
- No. 18
- No. 17
- No. 15
- No. 12
In pressure rate. None are top-10. The Cowboys are tops in pressure rate in the game’s first three quarters, recording pressure on 42.5% of opponent dropbacks.
So if the water meets its level, the Eagles will be pressured more than accustomed, and the Cowboys pass rush will get home less than usual.
So how does Jalen Hurts do vs. pressure?
It’s not ideal.
His splits this year:
When pressured: -0.48 EPA/att, 28% success, 5.3 YPA, 42% completions
When not pressured: +0.37 EPA/att, 52% success, 9.6 YPA, 76% completions
These splits are massive, but Hurts is still above average in EPA/att when pressured. But this game might be the first time we see more of these bad pressure numbers creep into the final output of the Eagles offense.
What’s going to be extra important for the Eagles is to jump out to an early lead.
It’s probably more important to emphasize building a fast lead vs. the Cowboys than any team in the NFL.
You cannot be predictable offensively vs Dallas and drop back often to pass on known passing situations, and that’s exactly what happens when you’re trailing.
The Cowboys have led at halftime in all of their wins this year. They’ve forced opponents to drop back to pass often vs their strong pass rush.
But the Cowboys run defense is a major liability. This strong Dallas defense ranks fifth vs the pass but 25th vs the run. And dead last vs explosive rushing.
And the Eagles have the sixth-ranked run offense.
Dallas hasn’t even played a good run offense this year. Dallas has played the sixth-easiest schedule of run offenses this year. Every opponent has ranked 20th or worse save for the Giants.
The Eagles must use the run game to avoid as many long-yardage known passing situations as possible. And build a halftime lead.
That way, in the second half, the entire playbook is open to the Eagles offense, which will minimize the strong pass rush of the Cowboys.
Additionally, it will put the onus on the Cowboys offense to get aggressive to catch up. Which is exactly what you want Cooper Rush to have to do.
Rush has been solid passing the ball on first downs when defenses don’t know if Dallas is going to run or pass:
- 75% completions (No. 5)
- +0.41 EPA/att (No. 1)
- 60.0% success (No. 2)
- 10.0 YPA (No.4)
But look at his performance on second or third downs, with 5+ yards to go, and his ranking out of 35 QBs:
- 54% completions (No. 34)
- -0.33 EPA/att (No. 33)
- 37.1% success (No. 33)
- 5.5 YPA (No. 31)
He shifts from one of the best-performing quarterbacks when passing on first down to one of the worst when passing on late downs when the defense might likely play the pass.
If the Eagles jump out to a lead?
They’ll get many late-down attempts from Cooper Rush, which are terrible.
Can the Eagles land a knockout blow early, or will they keep the Cowboys in the game or trail?
Cooper Rush will only be passing when it’s in his best interest.
This game presents the perfect live betting opportunity. If the Cowboys start out the game getting after Hurts and don’t fall behind early, jump on the Cowboys live line.
The inevitable problem for the Eagles comes when, even if they jump out to a lead, they stall out their offense in the second half, as has happened in every game.
The Eagles are averaging 21.2 first-half points and only 5.8 second-half points.
Assuming they’re good enough to jump out to an early lead, Philadelphia must continue to keep pressure on the Cowboys via the scoreboard to keep Cooper Rush chucking from behind when trailing.
49ers at Falcons (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
One of the keys in this game is the status of the secondary for the 49ers.
Jimmie Ward made his 2022 debut after being activated from the IR, but suffered a broken hand and will undergo surgery.
Unfortunately, that wasn’t the worst injury to hit the 49ers’ secondary as Emmanuel Moseley is out for the rest of the season after suffering a torn ACL.
With Jason Verrett still on the PUP list, Deommodore Lenoir and Charvarius Ward are the top two corners, although Lenoir has spent most of this season in the slot.
Against most offenses, these could be crippling losses. But against the Atlanta Falcons, that might not be the case.
First, this team does not want to run the ball. They have the fifth-lowest pass rate in the NFL.
Second, the Falcons’ top two pass-catchers are banged up right now. Kyle Pitts was inactive on Sunday due to a hamstring injury and Drake London went down late in the contest with an ankle injury. London avoided the injury report on Wednesday, so he should be ok to play on Sunday, but Pitts is practicing in a limited fashion, and we’ll need to monitor his status closely.
While the Falcons have been a fun team to start the season and are the only team currently undefeated against the spread (5-0), their performances leave something to be desired.
They’ve played two bottom-three defenses (No. 30 Browns, No. 31 Seahawks) and won both of those games.
Against the Rams, they trailed 28-3 and 31-10 in the fourth quarter before rallying back to respectably lose 31-27 and cover thanks to a blocked punt TD and an intentional safety taken by the Rams, which combined bumped the Falcons from 31-17 to 31-27 in the final 5:00 of the game.
Against the Buccaneers, they trailed 21-0 into the fourth quarter. Their offense in the first three quarters produced the following:
- Passing: 9-of-18, -0.33 EPA/att, 32% success, 4.7 YPA
- RB Rushing: 4.1 YPC, -0.16 EPA/att, 33% success
Then, in the fourth quarter, starting a drive at the Bucs 43-yard line, the Falcons drove for a TD and, after forcing two straight punts on three-and-outs as the Bucs tried to run the clock out, scored their final TD to close the margin to 21-15.
If we are to believe what we’ve seen, this is a Falcons team capable of competing with bad offenses but only able to cover games with large lines when in panic mode late in the fourth quarter.
It’s going to be a strength-on-strength matchup when the Falcons do try to run the ball, as they rank second running the ball and first on first down runs vs the 49ers run defense which ranks first defending the run and second defending first down runs.
Assuming the 49ers strong front-7 can minimize the Falcons run game, this game boils down to how the Falcons defense stops the 49ers offense.
Bengals at Saints (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
Last week the Baltimore Ravens did exactly what we thought they should defensively, and that’s a credit to DC Mike McDonald for being so flexible with his scheme.
Season-to-date, they had used two-high safeties at just a 38% rate, which was below average.
Against the Bengals last week, they used it at a 69% rate in the first three quarters.
Not surprisingly, Joe Burrow was terrible vs. two-high safeties, specifically traditional cover-2, but was better against other coverages.
The Saints are playing two-high safeties on 43% of opponent dropbacks this season, which is the ninth highest.
That should help to slow Burrow, particularly if they increase it. However, the concern is their inability to generate pressure on opposing QBs, which is something that teams have needed to do against Burrow.
But the Saints do seem to be improving their pressure rate on QBs.
All-downs, all quarters:
- Week 1: 11%
- Week 2: 11%
- Week 3: 32%
- Week 4: 26%
- Week 5: 37%
They still rank 22% on the season, which is dead last, but things are looking up the last few weeks.
The concern for the Saints will be if their run defense, which ranks No. 13 but has been terrible the last couple of weeks, can step up to slow down the No. 28 run offense of the Bengals.
Cincinnati’s rushing attack looked better vs the Ravens, but that was because Baltimore has the NFL’s 22nd run defense. The Saints just played two top-10 run offenses in the Seahawks and Vikings, so their run defense may look better against the Bengals. I’d lean towards the Saints +2 at home.
Warren Sharp is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He is the founder of Sharp Football Analysis and has worked as a consultant for league franchises while also previously contributing to ESPN and The Ringer, among other outlets. He studied engineering before using his statistical acumen to create predictive football models. You can follow Warren on Twitter at @SharpFootball.
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