Pa Jason McIntyre
FOX sports betting analyst
A quarter of the NFL season is in the books, but who’s counting?
Now that we can separate the wheat from the chaff a little bit among the NFL’s elite, my top bets for this weekend will be sharper. Four games in particular caught my attention this week. From the impact of recent defeats to plain old bad matches, I’ve focused on these games for your betting pleasure.
So let’s dive into my best bets for week 5 (with odds via Bet FOX)!
Should Cooper Rush start over Dak Prescott until the Cowboys lose? | SPEAK
Emmanuel Acho and Joey Taylor discuss the possibility of the Dallas Cowboys sticking with Cooper Rush as their starting QB.
Cowboys @ Rams (4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday, FOX)
Although Sean McVay is 3-1 against Dallas, the Rams are in a tough spot here. Los Angeles comes into this game thanks to a quick turnaround after the loss of MNF and a number of problems in the trenches.
The Rams rank last in the NFL in pressure rate at 9.4%, down significantly from last year’s 22.8%, and they have been unable to capitalize 49ers PR struggles. Will they change some things against Dallas for pressure Cooper Rush?
Offensively, the Rams didn’t have explosive plays against the 49ers and are very limited, with Cooper Kupp receiving a whopping 36.2% from Stafford’s goal goals. The most difficult aspect of this handicap is the forecast line was -7; it dropped to -4.5 after the Rams were blown out on Monday.
​While the Rams looked suspicious, forget what you saw last week and believe that overreaction is overreacting. Get past your recent bias and connect the dots.
CHOICE: Rams (-4.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4.5 points
bears @ Vikings (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
The Vikings, who are a happy 3-1, return from London and host one of the NFL’s worst offenses in years.
Chicago can’t move the ball because they can’t protect a young QB Justin Fields, who has just 34 completions through four games; for comparison Tom Brady completed 39 passes at SNF vs KC.
Bears are monsoon and bad Davis Mills fourth quarter interception from 0-4.
You can see why it was a bet with 6.5 opening to Vikings -7. However, the Vikings defense struggled to contain the backup QB Andy Dalton and a Saints the team is plagued by injuries. Can Chicago take advantage of Minnesota’s shaky D and keep up with the Vikings?
Last year, the Bears were defeated by the Vikings (Fields started one game) and went 0-2 in those games. Look for more of the same this weekend.
Choose: Vikings (-7 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7 points
Falcons @ Buccaneers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
Last year, when the Falcons moved up in class, they lost eight games by double digits. Seven of those came against playoff teams.
Now they will face a furious defense that has been torn apart Pat Mahomes in the game on the island. I attributed this loss to the damage caused by the hurricane in Tampa.
The Falcons have looked explosive through four games, except for three quarters against the Rams when they were outscored 28-3. They were 10 point underdogs in that game and now only 8.5 against a better defense?
In four meetings after Brady joined Tampa, he is 4-0 vs. Atlanta and 3-1 ATS. The Falcons were a great story. The Marcus Mariota offense was valiant and, more importantly, a payday for bettors (4-0 ATS, leads the NFL.) But they’ll lose a big chunk this weekend in Cordarrelle Patterson.
Historically, this is a bad spot for Atlanta, as teams 4-0 ATS in Week 5 are 12-21 ATS over the past 20 years.
CHOICE: Buccaneers (-8.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 8.5 points
Texans @ Jaguars (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
Houston has somehow won eight straight against Jacksonville, including twice by 14+ last year. Trevor Lawrence completed less than 57% of his passes in those two meetings last year, with three TDs and three INTs.
Jacksonville has been adjusted more than any team in the league this season, but is this young team ready to land anyone?
Thoughts on the 0-3-1 Texans, facing the easiest schedule in the NFL so far: Colts, Broncos, bears and Chargers. They all rank 10th or worse in Football Outsiders’ DVOA through four weeks. Now they’ll face a Jacksonville team that defeated the Colts and Chargers, though both limped along a bit.
But I just don’t think the Jags should put up that many points. Divisional game, points should be taken only on principle, right?
CHOICE: Texans (+7 at FOX Bet) to lose by less than 7 points (or win outright)
Jason McIntyre is a betting analyst for FOX Sports who also writes about the NFL and NBA drafts. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on all of the network’s shows. In 2017, McIntyre began producing NFL, college football and NBA gambling content for FOX Sports. In 2018 and 2019, he had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners”. Before joining FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
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