Pa Jeff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL analyst
I can’t believe it’s been four weeks NFL the season is in the books! Where did the time go? From a fans’ and punters’ point of view, it’s been great.
Odds usually solidify their power ratings after four weeks of data collection, so this Week 5 should be interesting.
As for my bets, two lines jumped out at me right away, so I pounced on them before the odds potentially changed. Let’s dive into my first week 5 odds bets Bet FOX.
Sea hawks @ Saints (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
Seattle is definitely interesting and they can really be good people. After four weeks, the Seahawks offense is ranked first in the NFC. Yes, you read that right.
According to Expected Points (EPA), the Hawks are slightly ahead Orlov, but they just ran into a defense that allows 35 points per game. On the other hand, Seattle ranks near the bottom of the NFL defensively. What does it mean this week? Well, New Orleans isn’t healthy and isn’t playing particularly well.
The Saints’ defense ranked 26th in DVOA entering the game vs Vikings in London, and they lived up to that rating. The Vikings moved the ball easily, but got stuck in the red zone too much, making five field goals in a 28-25 victory.
The Saints must now return from London and will look to get their quarterback, top running back and top receiver back on the field to face a sharp Seahawks team. I’ll happily take the points ahead of the Seahawks in this spot.
CHOICE: Seahawks (+6 at FOX Bet) to lose by less than 6 points (or outright win)
Chargers @ Brown (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
“Cleveland” suffered a surprising defeat Atlanta on Sunday. The Browns’ first drive ended at the Falcons’ three-yard line after a failed fourth down. Cleveland’s fourth drive had a first-and-goal at the one-yard line, but ended in a field goal attempt from the 11. Despite unsuccessful attempts to score a touchdown in those moments, the Browns had possession with the score tied. on fourth down by the quarterback before the punt and the interception ended their game.
Browns lost to Browns by 1 point Jet planes and a late field goal by the Falcons as their two losses. This is a good team that has trouble finishing plays offensively and defensively.
Los Angeles comes to Cleveland after defeating the bad Texans team. The Chargers will take another road trip without their left tackle, their best pass rusher, their best cornerback, their All-Pro center and several other vital cogs. They are a broken football team and the Browns have the players to take advantage of that, especially on the defensive line.
If Miles Garrett returned, which means danger to Justin Herbert and his broken costal cartilage. The Chargers defense is still holey and the Browns have the best combination of running backs and offensive linemen in the NFL. I’ll take three points right now, early in the week.
CHOICE: Brown (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by less than 3 points (or win outright)
Jeff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL with five different teams. He started at right tackle at Oregon State University for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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