6th week of NFL season is upon us and FOX Sports Research is here to continue to give you the edge you need to turn a profit!
A piece from last week selected several winners. Four road underdogs with seven or more points covered against the spread (ATS), the Buffalo Bills improved to 7-2-2 ATS (77.8%) and 10-1 (SU) (90.9%) as double-digit favorites under Sean McDermott, and two of four games with an over/under of 43 points or less Click Over.
As always, we took a deep dive into the data to identify the top trends of the week. We’ve also analyzed coaching and player trends that should help you figure out who to bet on this week.
Let’s jump into it and have some fun!
The underdogs have dominated for five weeks, Week 6 should be no different
Last week, we saw the underdogs completely crush him, going 10-6 ATS (62.5%), with five of those also coming against SU. Since the start of the season, underdogs have gone a whopping 47-31-2 ATS (60.3%). That’s the highest underdog percentage through the first five weeks of a season since 2010, when underdogs went 46-28-2 ATS (62.2%).
Looking at Week 6 from a historical perspective, the underdogs show a strong trend toward coverage:
- Since 2015: 61-35-3 ATS (63.5%).
- Since 2010: 97-68-5 ATS (58.8%)
- Since 2005: 130-100-7 ATS (56.5%)
- Since 2000: 168-130-8 ATS (56.4%)
- Since 1990: 223-190-15 ATS (54%)
- Since 1980: 297-240-16 ATS (55.3%)
The tweet below shows the underdogs and favorites for each match this week with odds from FOX Bet.
The Falcons have struggled against NFC West rivals in recent years
The Atlanta Falcons may have been the biggest surprise of the season so far, having already earned two wins despite their over/under total being around five at most sportsbooks. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS, the only team with a perfect coverage rate so far. The last time Atlanta was 5-0 ATS was in the 1969 season, which was the last season before the NFL and AFL officially merged.
While FOX Bet now have them as underdogs at 5.5 points against San Francisco 49ers, we like to see them continue their coverage trend. They are 11-5 ATS (68.8%) and 8-8 SU (50%) against NFC West opponents since 2014 and 5-3 ATS (62.5%) and SU against the 49ers since 2005 in the regular season.
San Francisco is also just 5-8 ATS (38.5%) when a five- to eight-point favorite under Kyle Shanahan, and 9-9 ATS (50%) as a road favorite in regular-season games under his leadership.
Commanders must take cover from bears
FOX Bet now has Commanders of Washington as underdogs with one point against Chicago Bears this thursday, just lost vs Tennessee Titans. Our data points to a variety of trends that favor commanders, here’s an overview of the most notable:
- Commanders are 11-3 ATS (78.6%) and SU vs. Bears since 1991 in regular season
- Chiefs are 8-1 ATS (88.9%) and 7-2 SU (77.8%) on the road against the Bears since 1981 in the regular season
- The Commanders have hit in 9 of their last 11 (81.8%) Thursday games
- Bears are 5-14 ATS (26.3%) against NFC East opponents in the regular season since 2013
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Historical data points to the Panthers covering against the Rams.
Considering it’s a shocker Baker Mayfield struggled, but also was turned off this Sunday in Carolina Panthers match against Los Angeles Rams, but our data says Carolina has a good chance to cover against the defending Super Bowl champions. Since 2014, the Panthers are 6-3 ATS (66.7%) when underscoring eight to 11 points, along with 7-6-2 ATS (53.8%) and 8-7 SU (53 .3%) against NFC West opponents since 2015.
Also, panthers fired by Matt Rule earlier this week after hiring him in 2020. While this may be another indicator to bet against Carolina, here’s a surprising feature of the teams in this situation:
- Over the past 20 seasons, 32 teams have fired their coaches during the regular season. Those teams went 15-17 SU (46.9%) and 17-15 ATS (53.1%) in the week after firing their coach.
Let’s not forget about that either PJ Walker will start for the Panthers in this game and is 2-0 in ATS and SU in his career as a starter. Also, the Rams are just 2-4-1 ATS (33.3%) and 2-5 SU (28.6%) against the Panthers since 2004 in the regular season. They also have the worst coverage rate in the league this season at 1-4 ATS (20%). At the moment FOX Bet Panthers are underdogs with 10.5 points.
The Broncos have to defend against the Chargers
It should be obvious how Denver Broncos have struggled all year, scoring 20+ points in just one of five games and falling to 1-4 ATS. The Los Angeles Chargers on the other hand, improved to 4-1 ATS (80%) last week and is a 5.5-point favorite against Denver. Here are a few trends that indicate the Chargers will be in business heading into Monday night’s game:
- The Broncos are 5-8 ATS (38.5%) and 2-11 SU (15.4%) against AFC West regular-season opponents since 2020
- Broncos are 3-7 ATS (30%) and SU in their last 10 regular season road games
- Since 2010, the Broncos are 4-10-1 (28.6%) and 5-10 (33.3%) in Monday games
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Patrick Mahomes became an underdog for the first time in his career
Note much of the trend as it is a good nugget, but the value of how much dominates Patrick Mahomes was in his career cannot be emphasized enough. Since his first career start at home in 2018, the sixth baseman has NEVER been an underdog at Arrowhead Stadium in either the playoffs or the regular season.
FOX Bet now has Kansas City Chiefs as 2.5-point underdogs against the Bills, with that line moving one point in Buffalo’s direction after the Chiefs’ one-point win against Las Vegas Raiders on Monday evening. Here’s how Mahomes’ career totals look, including the regular season and playoffs:
- 7-0-1 ATS and 6-2 SU (75%) as starter when underdog (all 8 regular season road games)
- 3-1 ATS (75%) and 3-1 SU as a starter against the Bills
- 7-3 ATS (70%) and 7-3 SU as a starter against AFC East opponents
- 4.5 is the most points he’s allowed as a starter when pitching in the outfield against Pittsburgh Steelers in a Week 2 matchup in 2018
- 21-20 ATS (51.2%) and 33-8 SU (80.5%) as a home starter
So, are you ready to start betting on NFL Week 6? Go to Bet FOX now for all your bets!
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