5th week of NFL season is upon us and FOX Sports Research is here to continue to give you the edge you need to turn a profit this week.
Last week’s trends selected several winners.
Four road underdogs covered against the spread (ATS), Kliff Kingsbury improved to 8-0 ATS and straight up (SU) as a road underdog in regular season games since last year. Las Vegas Raiders covered and earned their first victory and Dallas Cowboys continued their dominance in the stakes against NFC East rivals with a win over Commanders of Washington.
As always, we took a deep dive into the data and dissected common patterns to uncover the week’s top trends. We’ve also looked at other coaching and player trends that should help you figure out who to bet on this week.
Let’s jump into it and have some fun!
Over hits Week 5 games with an over/under of 43 or less
Since 2000, the Over has reached 82 of the 137 Week 5 games (59.9%) in which the total has been 43 or lower. When looking at the same situations from 2005, the Over is hit in 53 of 89 such games (59.6%). And looking at a recent sample size, since 2010 the Over has reached 27 of 45 games (60%) with a total of 43 points or less.
There will be four games this weekend with an over/under total of 43 or less.
Eligible games (total provided by FOX Bet):
Indianapolis Colts in Denver Broncos (42.5)
New York Giants in Green Bay Packers (40.5)
San Francisco 49ers in Carolina Panthers (38.5)
Tennessee Titans in Commanders of Washington (42.5)
Seven- to 14-point home favorites don’t get as much coverage as you might think in Week 5
Week 5 features five games with seven-point or more favorites, with all six favorites coming at home. We decided to look at how often seven- to 14-point home favorites have covered the spread in Week 5 games in the past. The results are below:
- Since 2018: 6-7 ATS (46.2%)
- Since 2015: 8-11-1 PBX (42.1%)
- Since 2010: 17-15-1 ATS (53.1%)
- Since 2005: 22-18-2 ATS (55%)
- Since 2000: 25-29-3 ATS (46.3%)
As you can see above, the coverage rate is below 50% going back to 2015 and 2018. While it jumps up when looking at figures from 2005 and 2010, it drops significantly to 46.3% when looking at percentage coverage since 2000. Simply put, it was unprofitable to bet on teams that needed to be covered in these situations.
The FOX Bet spreads for each of the six games corresponding to this weekend are as follows:
Pittsburgh Steelers in Buffalo Bills (-14)
Chicago Bears in Minnesota Vikings (-7)
Houston Texas in Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
Atlanta Falcons in Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9)
Las Vegas Raiders in Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
Bills cover as double-digit favorites
The Bills were considered double-digit favorites against the Titans earlier this season, and history says they’ll do it again this week against the Steelers.
As we mentioned in our week 2 post, Buffalo is dominant under Sean McDermott as double-digit favorites. Under him, the Bills went 6-2-2 ATS (75%) and 9-1 SU (90%) in those situations. McDermott and the Bills have also been consistent cover as home favorites, going 16-9-3 ATS (64%) and 23-5 SU (82.1%) in those games.
FOX Bet currently has the Bills as 14-point favorites.
If you’re wondering how they’re 14-point or more favorites under McDermott, they’ve gone 3-2-2 ATS (60%) and 6-1 SU (85.7%) in those games.
The Lions must cover against the Patriots
This may be a bit surprising considering Detroit Lions eternal struggle, but there is a lot of data in their favor.
Since 2018, Detroit is 15-13 ATS (53.6%) as an underdog on the road, and 6-4 ATS (60%) in those situations under Dan Campbell. Perhaps the highlight is that the Lions are 14-7 ATS (66.7%) overall from last season, tied with the Packers for the second-best regular season coverage percentage over that span (the Cowboys are first).
It’s also interesting that the Lions have been underdogs since New England’s defensive status Mc Jones and Brian Hoyer is still uncertain. If they are both turned off, Bailey Zappe is making his first career NFL start. Something to keep an eye on.
Look for leaders to take cover from raiders
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs put on a dominant performance against the Buccaneers last week, and they should talk again this week. While we’ve said before that seven- to 14-point home favorites don’t make it too often in Week 5, the Chiefs are the exception here — especially since they’re playing the Raiders. Under Andy Reid, the Chiefs are a staggering 7-2 ATS (77.8%) and 8-1 SU (88.9%) at home when playing the Raiders. Overall, Kansas City is 12-6 ATS (66.7%) and 15-3 SU (88.3%) against the Raiders under Reed. It is worth noting that the Over reached 10 of those 18 matches (55.6%).
Other data also do not point to the side of the raiders. Since 2018, they have been 6-7 ATS (46.2%) and 5-8 SU (38.5%) on the road against AFC West opponents. FOX Bet currently has the Chiefs as 7.5-point favorites for Monday’s matchup.
The Dolphins must cover against the Jets
Despite Tua Tagavailoa creature turned off for Sunday’s game vs New York Jets, Miami Dolphins have dominated this match in recent years. Since 2016, Miami is 9-2-1 ATS (81.8%) and 10-2 SU (83.3%) when playing the Jets, with the Under hitting in seven of those 12 games (58.3% ).
Since 2018, the Dolphins are also 17-8-1 ATS (68%) and 15-11 SU (57.7%) against AFC East opponents, or to be more precise, they are 7-4-1 ATS (63, 6%) when playing division opponents in the same time frame.
It should also be noted that Teddy Bridgewater will get the start for the Dolphins. Bridgewater is a staggering 24-6 ATS (80%) as a starter in road games. The Miami native is 5-2 ATS (71.4%) with SU as a road favorite.
So, are you ready to start betting on NFL Week 5? Go to Bet FOX now for all your bets!
Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events every week! Just make your choice and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!
