Pa Patrick Everson
FOX sports gambling writer
Sunday’s clash between Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs can be compared to one of the commercials of an FM radio station from the 1980s:
Lock it and rip the dial.
Bills at Chiefs is the most attractive matchup of the NFL’s Week 6 and the most anticipated game of the regular season. This is entirely due to the ridiculously entertaining playoff game between these two teams last January.
Below are details on the Bills-Chiefs vs. Penn State-Michigan matchup, along with a few more betting nuggets for NFL Week 6 and College Football Week 7.
Circle the Wagons
In last season’s AFC divisional playoffs, the Bills and Chiefs were tied 36-36 in regulation after a crazy final two minutes at Arrowhead Stadium.
List: Josh Allen led Buffalo to a touchdown and 2-point conversion with 1:54 left to give the Bills a 29-26 lead. Patrick Mahomes and KC followed just 52 seconds later with a touchdown to take a 33-29 lead.
Just 49 seconds later, the Bills scored another TD to take a 36-33 lead. Only 13 seconds left on the clock.
But Mahomes quickly put the Chiefs in position for a 39-yard field goal, tying it at 36 to force overtime. The Chiefs then won the coin toss and drove right down the field to win 42-36.
Bills have been extinguished since then. And in this case, they return to Kansas City as 2.5-point road favorites, not the 2.5-point underdogs they were in January.
“There’s a lot to unpack in this game,” WynnBet trader John Manica said. “WynnBet’s mantra in 2021 has been that nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills, and our trading floor is booked for them all week leading up to this past season classic.”
What Manika means by this: WynnBet took a position in this game needing a road win in Buffalo, or at least for the Bills to cover themselves as 2.5 underdogs. With a different coin toss, WynnBet’s risk-room might have gotten the desired result. But alas…
“The pain came when Kansas City made a miracle field goal to win in overtime. I’m not sure we’ve fully recovered from that,” Manika said. “Going into the second leg and both teams look like they are the class of the AFC. We took some serious action against KC at plus-money on the money line.”
Indeed, it is rare for the Chiefs to be an underdog, much less a home underdog. In fact, this is the first time Mahomes is the home underdog in his career. Some bettors are ditching the 2.5 and instead picking Kansas City to win at +125 for the best payout.
But, as Manika pointed out, there is a lot to unpack.
“There are several conflicting angles of betting in the game, he said. “The Bills have a super-revenge angle, but they’re not winning. Then you have a Kansas City team that won a Monday Night Football game against a division rival. This is often a situation where a team that has won without results becomes hyped. Home field advantage is real in Arrowhead as another classic showdown is likely in the cards.
“This one is up for grabs for sharp and recreational punters. I expect the house ‘dog’ money in Kansas City to pile up, and once again [us] need accounts.’
Sharp side
At least one professional bookie has already taken a position — twice — on a massive Bills-Chiefs matchup.
“I took Buffalo -2, and I took Buffalo to pick them at the projected number [last week], too,” he said. “Buffalo is the best team in the NFL. The defensive line will be the difference.”
Scoring begins Sunday at 4:25 PM ET at 4-1 (SU) and 3-1-1 against the spread (ATS). The Chiefs are also 4-1 SU, but just 2-3 ATS. Buffalo and Kansas City are No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in the chances to win the Super Bowl.
Another game for this sharp bettor comes against the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals.
“New Orleans +2. Cincinnati’s offensive line will be tested in this matchup,” he said. “And Michael Thomas must return to the saints. Take the hosts.”
Bengals-Saints kicks off Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
College Football on FOX
Let’s go back to school for a few moments as there are some monster games in the Week 6 college football odds market. One is a Big Noon battle on FOX between two Big Ten undefeated: #10 Pension state in number 5 Michigan.
Michigan is 6-0 SU/3-3 ATS and Penn State is 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS. Pro bookies leaned toward the Nittany Lions earlier this week in The SuperBook, and the public seems to like Penn State a little bit, too.
“A sharp play on Penn State +7.5 and Under 53,” said SuperBook risk manager/oddmaker Neil Fitzroy, referring to the spread and total bets. “There’s also a lot of support for Pennsylvania at +7. Fifty seven percent [point-spread] Penn State tickets.
“There is limited interest in Michigan -7. I wouldn’t be surprised if it closes out Michigan -6.5.”
In contrast, WynnBet sees the home favorite landing a bit more attention.
“We wrote a decent number of tickets on each side, but the majority [money] is in Michigan at the moment,” said WynnBet junior trader Caden Wickwire.
In another game #7 on FOX USC puts his 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS) mark on the line against #20 Utah (4-2 SU and ATS). Interestingly, the Utes are the consensus 3.5-point home favorite, but USC is getting more attention.
“A tight game at USC at +4 and 79% of USC tickets,” Fitzroy said of Wednesday night’s action in The SuperBook, for this Saturday night matchup at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Being at school
The biggest matchup on Saturday is in the SEC, with the No. 3 seed Alabama we go to #6 Tennessee. Like Penn-Michigan State, the winner of this undefeated matchup remains on track in the College Football Playoff chase, while the path for the loser becomes much more difficult.
Alabama (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) is a consensus 7-point favorite, but odds at several sportsbooks, including The SuperBook, say Tennessee (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) is very popular this week.
“The money and the ticket are in the account [favored] Tennessee +7.5. We are currently at level 7 and there is still no interest in Bama,” said Fitzroy of The SuperBook.
Starts at 3:30 PM ET.
Sunday Night Lights
Going back to the NFL, undefeated Philadelphia Eagles (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) the host is amazing Dallas Cowboys (4-1 SU and ATS). Dallas was without Duck Prescott (thumb) since Week 1 and is not expected to play in Sunday night’s game. But the Cowboys are 4-0 SU and ATS behind the backup QB Cooper Rush and durable protection.
“Dallas found great luck against Rams there were some key situations last week,” WynnBet trader John Manica said of the Cowboys’ 22-10 rout of the host Rams. record. However, some will question the strength of their opponents.
“We placed a very early bet on the Eagles -5.5. But just like last week, the Cowboys’ style and low total of 42 will certainly drive action on the Cowboys, who are currently +6. I expect a lot of betting volume for this prime-time clash, with opinions being formed on both sides of the running score.”
Down and out
Miami can’t keep his quarterbacks healthy, which certainly affects the NFL week 6 odds for the Dolphins to win at home vs. Minnesota Vikings. Tua Tagavailoa remains in the concussion protocol, as does the backup Teddy Bridgewater. So, the third string beginner Skylar Thompson will get a start.
The Dolphins are consensus underdogs at 3.5 points, including at WynnBet.
“The Dolphins quarterback situation is in bad shape,” Manika said. “In comes third stringer Skylar Thompson, who [played] most of last week’s game against the Jets when Teddy Bridgewater went down. The experience is undoubtedly beneficial as the Vikings are exposed to an environment they normally have trouble with – playing outside. Check [Minnesota’s] result against the Eagles earlier this year. It was a 24-7 beatdown in Philadelphia, and it wasn’t that close.”
Monica pointed out that last week the prediction line for this game was a pick, but now it’s Vikes -3.5 because of the Dolphins’ lack of a QB. The bettors don’t really like either team.
“Until now, playing 3.5 with the Vikings in the open or a third-string quarterback hasn’t been attractive,” Manika said. “I really expect money to come to the Vikings because the public will definitely want to support the team with the best numbers over an unknown quarterback. An upset may be brewing.’
FOXBet Senior Trading Operations Manager Dylan Brossman said Wednesday night’s Vikings are one of the most popular bets this week to cover the spread. Also popular: San Francisco 49erswho are 5.5 point favourites Atlanta Falcons.
That concludes the mid-week report. May all your bets be successful!
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He previously worked at Covers and is a prominent journalist in the national sports betting space. He lives in Las Vegas, where he enjoys playing golf in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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