The Miami Dolphins (3-1) will be without a starting quarterback Tua Tagavailoa (concussion) when they play in the New York Jets (2-2) in a key AFC East division contest on Sunday.
Veteran Teddy Bridgewater will begin in Miami.
The Dolphins lead the all-time series against the Jets 57-55-1. Miami was in control NFL rivalry – which began in 1966 – winning their last four games and eight of their last nine.
Here’s everything you need in terms of betting on the Dolphins-Jets game, from the point spread, money line, over/under total and expert picks (odds via Bet FOX):
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Dolphins @ Jet planes (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
Point Spread: Dolphins -3.5 (Dolphins are favored to win by more than 3.5 points, otherwise Jets cover)
Cash line: Dolphins -167 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15.99 total); Jets +130 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $23)
Total points over/under: Both teams combined for 44.5 points
The Dolphins are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games.
In 10 of their last 14 games, the Dolphins have been outscored in Over/Under (O/U) contests.
The Dolphins are 7-1 in their last eight games against the Jets.
In their last 18 games, the Jets have struck out 12 times in the Over at O/U.
Jets are 1-7 (SU) in their last eight home games.
In their last five home games against the Dolphins, the Jets have won the Under O/U matchups.
Information from a gambling expert Warren Sharp:
Finishing out of the AFC North will be a nice relief for the Jets. The Jets have played their first four games against a tough AFC North and their last two against of Bengal and Steelersboth ranked among the top 10 defenses.
The Jets will now face the No. 5 worst defense in the NFL, the Dolphins.
Miami is allowing the second-most passing yards this year.
And they were the worst pass defense in the NFL against the run game.
When QBs use play action, they record a +0.65 EPA/att, which ranks first in the NFL and is well above the NFL average of +0.12 EPA/att.
When teams don’t use play action against the Dolphins, their passing average is +0.05 EPA/attack.
So it made a huge difference for the QB when facing the Dolphins.
In his game against the Steelers, Wilson had huge splits with and without play action on early passes:
With game action:
+0.09 EPA/att, 50% success, 8.0 YPA
Without game action:
-0.23 EPA/att, 19% success, 5.1 YPA
When the Jets improved Wilson use of play action, and it’s not a case of a small sample size, it’s going to be massive for them this season.
That’s because Wilson was one of the NFL’s worst passing game QBs last season.
Take a look at his cleavage in 2021:
With game action:
-0.31 EPA/att, 32% success, 5.8 YPA
Without game action:
-0.10 EPA/att, 37% success, 6.2 YPA
Play action could eventually work for Wilson if the line can hold long enough on defense.
As for the Dolphins, I can’t think of a team that needs 10 days off from playing more than the Dolphins.
From the game against Bills in the brutal heat before a short turnaround on the road and losing their starting QB to a severe concussion followed by all the media blitz and criticism, it was a rough time. That’s why it was the perfect time to spend extra days away from the game to rest and prepare for this game.
Say what you want Teddy Bridgewater performance after insertion for Tua last Thursday, but I think he will look MUCH better here against the Jets defense.
What’s amazing about Tua and this Dolphins offense is that they rank 2nd in overall efficiency, including 2nd in pass efficiency, despite being 1st in offense pass defense schedule.
They’ve played nothing but three top-10 pass defenses and No. 14 thrown in for good measure.
Now they finally get to face the Jets’ No. 4 worst defense, which will be the worst pass defense the Dolphins will face all season.
I fully expect Teddy Bridgewater to look good in this situation given the players around him, his training and the amount of time he’s had to prepare. He won’t outscore Tua, but he should be passable against this defense.
Keep in mind that last year with Broncos quarterback Vic Fangio, Teddy Bridgewater faced the same Jets defense and went 19 of 25 for 235 yards (9.4 YPA), +0.37 EPA/att and 48% success, scoring 26 points. It was a far less creative, talented and well-coached offense than the one he has now with the Dolphins.
I would look at the Over in this game.
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