Pa Jeff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL analyst
I can’t believe it’s been four weeks NFL the season is in the books! Where did the time go? From a fans’ and punters’ point of view, it’s been great.
Odds usually solidify their power ratings after four weeks of data collection, so this Week 5 should be interesting.
As for my bets, four lines jumped out at me right away, so I pounced on them before the odds potentially changed. Let’s dive into my Week 5 bets with odds kindly provided Bet FOX.
Sea hawks @ Saints (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
Seattle is definitely interesting and they can really be good people. After four weeks, the Seahawks offense is ranked first in the NFC. Yes, you read that right.
According to Expected Points (EPA), the Hawks are slightly ahead Orlov, but they just ran into a defense that allows 35 points per game. On the other hand, Seattle ranks near the bottom of the NFL defensively. What does it mean this week? Well, New Orleans isn’t healthy and isn’t playing particularly well.
The Saints’ defense ranked 26th in DVOA entering the game vs Vikings in London, and they lived up to that rating. The Vikings moved the ball easily, but got stuck in the red zone too much, making five field goals in a 28-25 victory.
Now the Saints must return from London and look to get their quarterback, top running back and top receiver back on the field to face a sharp Seahawks team. I’ll happily take the points ahead of the Seahawks in this spot.
CHOICE: Seahawks (+6 at FOX Bet) to lose by less than 6 points (or outright win)
Chargers @ Brown (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
“Cleveland” suffered a surprising defeat Atlanta on Sunday. The Browns’ first drive ended at the Falcons’ three-yard line after a failed fourth down. Cleveland’s fourth drive had a first-and-goal at the one-yard line, but ended in a field goal attempt from the 11. Despite a failed touchdown attempt at that point, the Browns had possession with the score tied. on fourth down by the quarterback before the punt and the interception ended their game.
Browns lost to Browns by 1 point Jet planes and a late field goal by the Falcons as their two losses. This is a good team that has trouble finishing plays offensively and defensively.
Los Angeles comes to Cleveland after defeating the bad Texans team. The Chargers will take another road trip without their left tackle, their best pass rusher, their best cornerback, their All-Pro center and several other vital cogs. They are a broken football team and the Browns have the players to take advantage of that, especially on the defensive line.
If Miles Garrett returned, which means danger to Justin Herbert and his broken costal cartilage. The Chargers defense is still holey and the Browns have the best combination of running backs and offensive linemen in the NFL. I’ll take three points right now, early in the week.
CHOICE: Brown (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by less than 3 points (or win outright)
Mark Sanchez on Aaron Rodgers, Packers early Week 5 | HERD
Fox analyst Mark Sanchez joins Colin Cowherd to discuss Aaron Rodgers and the intensity of play he brings to the field.
Giants @ Packers (9:30 a.m. ET Sunday, NFL Network)
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones seems on track to start this contest in London on Sunday morning against the Packers. And while I don’t believe the Giants will win this game, I think they are pesky enough to cover this spread.
With heather Saquon Barkley, combined with Daniel Jones’ ability to run, the Giants have the 7th most efficient rushing attack. They play a Packers defense that ranks as the 28th ranked defense. If the Giants continue to find innovative ways to get their rushing attack into places to succeed, I think they can control the clock and keep it close.
Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers leads an offense still trying to find its way with new receivers and an offensive line returning from injuries. The Packers are averaging fewer points and passing yards, allowing more sacks per game this season than they did in Matt Lafleur’s first three years.
The Giants defense is second through third and in the red zone. It would be fair to question these ratings, because in the first four weeks in Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush and Justin Fields. So yes, Aaron Rodgers is definitely the best quarterback they’ve faced all season. But Rodgers didn’t play very well.
Finally, Daniel Jones was excellent against the spread (ATS) going 13-6 on the road. I’ll take the giants for cover.
PEAK: Giants (+7.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by less than 7.5 points (or win outright)
Eagles challenge Chiefs atop Nick’s NFL Tiers in Week 5 | FIRST-FIRST
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles lead the list of the NFL’s best teams.
Raiders @ Chiefs (8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN)
Andy Reid took over as Kansas City coach in 2013, and his Chiefs owned the Raiders, losing just three times in 18 games. Most of the 15 wins have come by more than a touchdown, and only two have come by fewer than six points. More often than not, the results look like we saw last season when the Chiefs went 48-9 and 41-14. They are going to dominate a poor Raiders team again on Monday night.
The Chiefs returned their swagger against Bucks on Sunday night and I don’t expect to be let down against a hated rival in the Raiders. The Chiefs offense is back to where I expected it to be, near the top of every performance metric. The Raiders defense is 22nd in scoring, 29th in the red zone and 31st in sacks. If you don’t press Mohamedhe will tear through that defense.
The Raiders offense has shown some vitality, but not enough where it counts. Their offensive line is struggling, leading to a poor performance in the red zone. They rank 28th in the red zone. The Chiefs defense is much improved and it’s not hard to see them winning in the trenches and throughout Karr from start to finish on Monday night.
The Chiefs are going to win this game and cover with ease.
CHOICE: Chiefs (-7.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7.5 points
Jeff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL with five different teams. He started at right tackle at Oregon State University for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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